JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- When it comes to corn and soybeans, states such as Illinois and Iowa are certain to be production juggernauts season after season. The sheer number of acres dedicated to these crops means that all eyes -- and the markets -- tend to focus their attention on these states, including the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour.

Yet, living on the buckle of the Corn Belt isn't a prerequisite for growing successful, and often high-yielding, crops, as this year's tour estimates reveal. In four of the six states featured in our "Best of the Rest" yield tour roundup, corn and soybean yield estimates are higher this year than in 2025, based on DTN models based as of Aug. 1 conditions. These states also bested their 5-year yield averages based on USDA Risk Management Agency data.

CORN Yield Estimates (bushels per acre)
STATE	DTN 2026	RMA 5-YR AVG
Arkansas	168.5	162.0
Colorado	103.4	110.0
Kentucky	208.4	181.7
Louisiana	168.3	156.9
Tennessee	197.7	157.7
Texas	114.4	117.0

SOYBEAN Yield Estimates (bushels per acre)
STATE	DTN 2026	RMA 5-YR AVG
Arkansas	47.2	42.6
Colorado	50.2	54.3
Kentucky	55.1	54.5
Louisiana	46.0	45.1
Tennessee	51.2	50.7
Texas	31.3	23.6

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that it employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. You can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August, you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

Much of the Southern U.S. was mired in drought early this spring, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, but a consistent storm track from Texas up through the Great Lakes led to overall improving conditions for Texas, western Arkansas and adjacent areas. It was warm in March, which got these states to start planting well ahead of normal as the dry ground and warm conditions were generally favorable.

"However, the consistent pattern left a lot of the Delta and Tennessee Valley in increasing dryness through the spring, leading to widespread drought development," Baranick said. "Rains improved in May and into June, which largely eliminated the drought. Heavy rain in Texas in June may have caused some acres to flood, but it had been a pretty good run of rainfall at the needed time for a lot of acres. July has become hotter and drier, though, revealing some concerns for any of the crop that wasn't planted early."

Colorado was a lot like western Kansas and Nebraska, having issues with building drought in the spring. Summertime rainfall has been somewhat favorable, though, and heat hadn't been as destructive as it was for those areas farther south and east.

"But July showcased much hotter conditions, ranking in the top 10 of hottest Julys on record, which has resulted in falling crop conditions lately," Baranick added.

MARKET COMMENTARY

According to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, corn production in the fringe areas of the "core" Corn Belt looks to be a mixed bag for 2026. On one hand, Kentucky and Tennessee carry improved crop ratings as of early August in 2026, compared to 2025, with the DTN Digital Yield Tour forecasting well-above-average yields for both.

"Other states to the west and south didn't fare as well, however, with dryness and drought plaguing eastern Colorado and Texas, where yields are expected to be below average as a result," he said. "Overall, the 'Best of the Rest' in 2026 highlights the overall theme where western growing areas typically faced more challenging conditions as compared to the eastern Belt.

Turning to soybeans, Montgomery said that in its August Crop Production report, USDA added almost 500,000 acres from the June survey, particularly in the Mississippi Delta region, which includes "Best of the Rest" states Arkansas and Louisiana.

"As a result, those states may carry a higher influence on national production in 2026, with the DTN Digital Yield Tour forecasting above-average production for both," he said. "However, Louisiana's crop ratings are sharply lower in early August of 2026 as compared to 2025. Last year featured an incredible 92% good-to-excellent score, suggesting mildly above-average yield in 2026 could still be in the cards."

As is often said about soybean production, the final result may come down to August weather. Delta region soybeans are among the furthest developed in the U.S., with more than 90% having set pods by this point. Meanwhile, the past few weeks have been on the dry side in the Southern U.S., which looks to continue through to late August.

ARKANSAS

"Harvest is underway," said Scott Stiles, Extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, in an Aug. 13 news release. "Yield reports are encouraging, for the most part. Acres were reduced by 70,000 this month (in the USDA Crop Production Report) and puts us 50,000 below last year. That makes sense, given the loss of some acres to freeze in mid-March and the sharp run-up in urea prices around the same time."

Jason Kelley, University of Arkansas Extension wheat and feed grains agronomist, said the USDA report had "no real surprise on corn yields."

"Arkansas corn growers are harvesting and expecting good yields, and 185 bushels per acre is only slightly higher than last year," Kelley said. "It will be interesting to see if the 185-bushel-per-acre average holds as we enter more widespread harvest over the next couple of weeks, given the heat at the end of grain fill, which tends to reduce yields."

Stiles said USDA forecast Arkansas corn production at 185 bpa, just 2 bpa short of the 2024 record of 187 bpa. The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour model estimates Arkansas' corn yield at 168.5 bpa, 6.5 bpa above the five-year RMA average.

Also in its report, USDA increased Arkansas soybean acreage by 250,000 acres to 3.45 million acres, which Stiles said would be the highest total since 2017.

"The forecast of 57 bushels per acre would be a record," Stiles said of the USDA estimate. "The previous records were 55 bushels in 2025 and 2024."

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour model estimates Arkansas' soybean yield at 47.2 bpa, 4.6 bpa above the five-year RMA average.

COLORADO

Below-average snowpack, sparse rain and record heat are taking a toll on the Colorado corn crop.

It's always hard to get an accurate, broad prediction of corn yield potential in Colorado in August, said Colorado Corn Council Executive Director Nick Colglazier, "but even if you're close, a hailstorm could knock you out."

DTN's statewide estimate of 103.4 bpa is probably close, he said, adding that access to water has been a struggle statewide. Lower snowpack has reduced water allotments for growers across the state, and irrigators in eastern counties are struggling with aquifer reductions.

Roughly half of the state's crop is irrigated, and if there's enough water, yields can run from 250 bpa to 300 bpa. A typical dryland crop ranges from 40 bpa to 100 bpa. More is possible with the right soils.

"For dryland, the heat's just hitting at the exact wrong time," he said, causing plants to fire. "Even the irrigated corn might have taken a hit" from 105-degree temperatures during pollination.

Some of the state's best-looking crops are in the valleys of the Western Slope, where there's better access to water. While much of it is sweet corn and food-grade corn, field corn is a rotational crop.

He thinks acreage estimates for the state will decrease by the time USDA finalizes its tally.

"Everybody in ag who relies on surface water is really hurting," he said, adding that the state constitution prioritizes water for cities over agricultural uses. "If we don't get a good snow year -- and I mean at least an average snowpack -- I don't know what will happen."

KENTUCKY

Earlier this week, Quint and Leah Pottinger avoided flooding rains that affected portions of neighboring Indiana, but that doesn't mean that flooding wasn't a factor this season on their north-central Kentucky farm near New Haven, about 50 miles south of Louisville.

"We planted 300 acres three times this spring from the flash flooding," Quint Pottinger said. "Ended up not getting about 380 acres planted."

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour models forecast a statewide average corn yield of 208.4 bpa, well above the five-year average of 181.7. In Nelson County, where Pottinger farms, DTN models predict a yield of 189.2 bpa.

"As of today (Aug. 14), the corn yields could hit that, but our thinner soils and heat tend to knock off yield in August ahead of harvest," Pottinger said. "We'll probably land closer to 180-181 bpa."

On the soybean side of the ledger, the Kentucky farmer noted that soybean yields are heavily dependent on wildlife pressure this time of year. DTN models predict a soybean yield of 51.8 bpa in Nelson County and a statewide average of 55.1 bpa.

"As long as we keep getting rain, the plants can outpace the deer pressure," Pottinger said. "Probably end up closer to 48 bpa."

LOUISIANA

Combines are hard at work in Louisiana, according to an update from "This Week in Louisiana Agriculture (TWILA)," a television program produced by the Louisiana Farm Bureau.

"I'm hopeful for an average crop," northeast Louisiana farmer Kam Harper told the program. "It's not going to be what it could have been if Mother Nature wouldn't have dinged us."

Harper planted into good growing conditions in early March. A week later, temperatures dropped to the upper 20s.

"We watched it really close for about a week," Harper said. "It killed a lot of corn. We made a decision to kill the corn that was left standing and replanted everything."

Conditions have been more favorable farther south. Grayson Close, a grain marketing specialist with the Louisiana Farm Bureau Marketing Association, told TWILA that much of the corn moving through the association has come from south of Alexandria, including the Red and Mississippi river corridors.

Corn also moved to market at a brisk pace in July. Close said the association's July corn volume was the second largest he's seen during his time there, and early yield reports from some growers have been strong.

DTN estimates Louisiana corn yields at 163.8 bpa.

Harper said an average crop would be enough, given the economics farmers face this year.

"I'd love to cut bumper yields and, you know, coffee-table yields that you can brag on. But at the end of the day, we're trying to feed our families, and we're trying to make ROI -- return on our investment."

You can watch Harper's TWILA segment here: https://www.youtube.com/….

TENNESSEE

Kaleb Dinwiddie's operation in West Tennessee looked different this year. He planted all cotton and soybeans, skipping the usual fall wheat crop and opting out of corn as nitrogen prices made it unprofitable.

"The beans look phenomenal, and the cotton looks great," he said, adding that it's a relief after five tough years on his farm outside Trenton in Gibson County. "It's probably the best crop I've ever had. This is the first time, today (Aug. 13), that we've been dry all year."

Dinwiddie started planting soybeans March 20 and finished by April 5. So, while many Midwestern farmers look to August rains to fill pods, his critical window is mid-to-late July, a month when most of the state received 1.5 times the average rainfall. While that is creating bug and disease pressure, Dinwiddie credits his farm's focus on soil health for his relatively clean fields.

He thinks they'll start harvest in about two weeks and hopes to get 75 bpa. DTN models estimate a soybean yield of 49.8 bpa in Gibson County.

It's hard to compare that to his farm average since, historically, most of his crop is usually a double-crop of soybeans following winter wheat.

"This is the first year we haven't had any wheat, and I don't miss it," he said, adding that he's expanding cover crops to replace it. Corn prices would need to rise above $5.50 per bushel to earn its way back into his rotation, while cotton prices above 90 cents per pound would secure a larger portion of the farm's acreage for that crop.

TEXAS

Mark Welch, professor and grain marketing economist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, told DTN the corn crop in Texas is looking good.

In all, Texas farmers planted about 2.45 million acres of corn in 2026, down slightly from the 2.5 million acres in 2025.

"We are in the midst of harvest in central Texas and along the Coastal Bend, and yields look strong," Welch said during the first week of August. He noted that weak areas include South Texas, where rain came too late and limited irrigation water, and the Panhandle, which is mostly irrigated but below-normal rainfall still takes a toll. "We are harvesting much less corn for grain in the Panhandle region and a higher percentage for silage."

DTN's Digital Yield Tour forecasts the Texas corn yield at 114.4 bpa, below the Risk Management Agency's five-year average of 117.0 bpa.

Yields in several panhandle counties, however, are forecast by DTN to come in far above the state average.

DTN's forecast shows the top five counties in terms of production on the current crop are all in the Texas Panhandle, yet yields are still far below the five-year averages for each of those counties.

Hansford County is forecast to have the largest average yield in the state at 186.9 bpa; its five-year average is 221.9 bpa.

The remaining four-highest yields forecast are in Ochiltree County, 178.25 bpa; Wheeler County, 178.15 bpa; Gray County, 176.7 bpa; and Roberts County, 176.2 bpa. All four counties have five-year averages greater than 209.0 bpa.

As for the soybean crop, Welch said the growing regions in Texas have seen both higher-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. Most of the crop is grown in northeast Texas along the Red River and southwest of Houston, he said.

DTN's Digital Yield Tour forecasts the Texas soybean crop at 31.3 bpa, above the five-year average of 23.6 bpa.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour forecast shows Ochiltree County with the highest soybean yield in Texas at 46.5 bpa, followed by Hansford County with 43.3 bpa and Sherman County at 40.1 bpa.

Texas farmers planted about 125,000 acres of soybeans in 2026, up from 95,000 acres in 2025.

DTN Environmental Editor Todd Neely and Progressive Farmer Editor-in-Chief Katie Dehlinger contributed to this report.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN

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