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Drought, Fire Stresses US Cow Herd
By Jennifer Carrico
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 10:28AM CDT

REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- Drought-type conditions have been widespread throughout the major cow-calf producing states this spring and have affected much of the pasture and range as producers get closer to turning cows out to grass.

Pasture and range conditions in Nebraska continue to be the worst across the country with only 4% of pastures in good-to-excellent condition. Widespread wildfires have left much of the Nebraska Sandhills without grass for several thousand cows.

Less than ideal pasture and range conditions are present in other beef cow states, including Texas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Kansas and Montana. The other states with the least number of pastures in good-to-excellent condition are Florida, Colorado and Arizona. Missouri and North Dakota are the two beef cow states showing better pasture conditions with 76% and 61% in good-to-excellent condition, respectively.

WEATHER AFFECTS PASTURE GROWTH

Weather continues to be uncertain for much of cattle country, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "It's been very dry in a lot of the cattle areas of the Plains this spring. And from southern South Dakota down through west Texas, it's been a lot of missing from the hit-or-miss types of showers moving through, making conditions worse," he said.

Parts of the eastern end of the Plains into the Midwest has been receiving some moisture, according to Baranick, while some areas are still a bit on the wet side.

Temperatures have been colder than usual in the Plains and Midwest. Some areas are still experiencing frost and freezes, especially in the Northern Plains. "These colder temperatures have likely had some effect on pasture development," he said.

DROUGHT INDEX HISTORICALLY HIGH

Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel said moving into May, drought conditions take on a new urgency as pasture and hay production will determine cattle production potential for the coming year.

"The Drought Severity Coverage Index (DSCI) is calculated from Drought Monitor categories to provide a summary measure of drought. The current DSCI for the continental U.S. is a value of 202, which is the largest value for the end of April in the history of the Drought Monitor back to 2000," Peel said. The average DSCI is 108.

His further analysis of the DSCI shows 79% of the beef cow herd in the 26 states that account for 88% of the 2026 beef cow herd are currently impacted by drought. "It is clear that drought is a significant threat to beef cattle production and potential herd rebuilding in 2026," Peel added. "Continued or accelerated drought in 2026 could interrupt early heifer retention and further delay herd rebuilding."

Baranick expects some showers and thunderstorms to move across the Midwest, South and Southeast this week to help reduce some drought conditions. "Snowfall could move across southeastern Wyoming and Colorado, while cold rain will extend into some very dry areas in western Nebraska and Kansas," he said. "That should eventually boost conditions for pastures and rangelands but comes at a cost of more frosts and freezes for a couple of days this week."

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @JennCattleGal


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